Trend theory: types of Forex trends
Market trends seem to follow geometric patterns as they go through both low and high trends. An uptrend creates a series of trends that have higher lows and highs. A trend line drawn between the rising lows can often be fairly accurate in determining where the market can find greater support during the next low trend and indicate fairly good buying levels.
Many Forex traders will choose an area below the trend line at which stop orders are are placed resulting in a sharp sell off. New sellers are generally attracted by breaks below the uptrend line. It's quite normal to see a series of lower lows and lower highs during a downward trend in the market. In this case, the trend line is drawn in alignment with the descending highs and will mirror the analysis as described above.
Every possible piece of information that is known is included in the price of a security, for this reason technical analysis will hold up. This information removes the necessity to analyze the political, economic and fundamental factors that have a big influence on price. Since all of the information that is available is already factored into the current price, the price movement is all that needs to be analyzed. The tendency for prices to trend isn't guaranteed; therefore any analysis should rely on common sense and empirical evidence. The fact that prices do trend is supported by the time proven Dow Theory.
For example, if homeowners have some reason to believe that Forex interest rates will increase and depreciate the value of their homes, they will be more likely to consider selling. Three similar homes in the same area could be sold at various prices. This would be much more preferable to dropping the prices of the homes down to low simply based on interest rates. Prices will tend to move more consistently over a period of time, but in the same direction.
With numerous participants in a large market such as global equities, prices often tend to move from high to low in one direction. But, prices will continue on a downward slope until a balance is reached between buyers and sellers. Sometimes this slope is gradual and sometimes it can happen really quick, but it's what a technical analyst tries to identify and exploit. When this trend is identified, a house may be sold short because the trend is getting lower. Price trends are one of the major concepts that give value to a technical analysis. If someone disagrees with the Dow Theory, they will usually disagree with a technical analysis as well. A technical analyst theorizes that all investors display the same type of behavior. There are the repeating attitudes that "Everyone wants in on the next Microsoft", "Stock in a company with a new technological invention will sky rocket". While this might be an irrational theory, it does still exist. A technical analyst will even create a chart showing patterns of price movements are predictive qualities.
Since their primary concern is price trends, they are interested in anything that can influence prices. Some even monitor the enthusiasm that investors display with surveys. These surveys are used to attempt to determine the attitudes the investment community has and whether they're going to be bullish about the investment or eager.
They also gather information from surveys to help determine if a particular trend will reverse and whether new trends are about to develop. Extreme reactions from investors can alter the outcome of a technical analysis. If most of the investors surveyed are bullish, it's a good indicator that there are very few buyers remaining in the market place. If investors appear to be long, there are generally more sellers than buyers and indicates the market is trending down. This concept is referred to as contrarian trading.