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Marc Chaikin Oscillator
This volume indicator, Chaikin's Oscillator, is called after its developer Marc Chaikin and is the difference of moving averages of the accumulation/distribution indicator. Chaikin proceeded with the work of his forerunners Joe Granville and Larry Williams to provide more information on it. The volume indicator of accumulation/distribution by Marc Chaikin technically analyzes both market indexes and separate shares. It should also comprise knowledge of tenders' volume to help analysts get the right vision of the essence of each particular market.
In many cases, only a discrepancy of volume and the market prices predicts an important market turn. It allows foreseeing internal forces and market weak points. Technical analysts always knew that tenders' volume was very important; nevertheless, some well-known researches in this field were not acknowledged until the latest sixty years when Joe Granville and Larry Williams started their studies on connection of the price and volume more effectively. The price and volume were thought to be rising and decreasing simultaneously for a long time, and that any violation of this dependence happens because of leaps in the price tendency. One of these theories was the Granville's concept of balance volume (IAV) which is rather clear but too simple and therefore reproachable. This concept says that the whole volume in a day of an increase in prices is considered as accumulation and in a day of decline as distribution.
According to IAV, the price's noticeable short-term and intermediate rises and falls very often turn out to be quite true. There is a precise technical signal that predicts the upcoming change of the market prices. It usually happens when the formation of a price extremum goes together with a discrepancy of IAV line. According to this rule, the so-called concept of balance volume elaborates and improves by another researcher, Larry Williams.
Granville and Williams surveyed the market in different ways. The first survey compared running close price with the previous. The second survey compared close price with open price. In this way, they were able to find out if accumulation or distribution occurred.
The cumulative indicator developed by Williams lets us add to its cumulative value some of the share of day time tenders' volume just in case the close price exceeds the open price and subtracting a share of volume in case the close price is less than the open price.
That is why we can surely say that accumulation/distribution indicator turned out to be a more successful principle of the analysis than that of volumetric divergences by Granville. Moreover, when Williams developed the oscillator on the basis of an accumulation/distribution line, this new oscillator created opportunities to get even more exact buy or selling.
In the early seventies, it was quite impossible to make calculations according to Williams' formula without phoning the broker every day because daily newspapers have stopped printing data on the share's open price. That is why Chaikin created Oscillator and replaced the open price in Williams' formula by the average day.
Therefore, if there is a reliable instrument of the market analysis and a tool of opportune defining buy and sell signals, it's Chaikin's Oscillator. There are three main principles in the oscillator's concept:
An accumulation (maximum plus minimum) will definitely occur this very day if the share or an index is closed above the average value for the day. The accumulation becomes more active the closer the level of share close or an index reaches the maximum rate. Vice versa, the distribution occurred this day once the share gets lower than the average day price. The distribution becomes more active the closer you get to the minimum rate.
As a rule, when prices constantly go up, tenders' volume and strong volume accumulation are also rising. Indebtedness of volume at prices' growth demonstrates lack of fuel for further rise while the volume of some types of fuel feeding market increases. Vice versa, when the market prices decrease low volume may be observed, and finally there is a panic liquidation of institutional investors' positions.
Chaikin Oscillator also allows the following volume of the market money resources. Therefore, one is able to predict market rises and falls - both short-term and intermediate term - with the help of comparing changes of volume and prices.
It is recommended to use Chaikin Oscillator with other technical indicators because there are still no irreproachable instruments of technical analysis. Chaikin Oscillator can be also used differently when change of its direction serves as a buy or sell notice but only if it corresponds to the direction of the price tendency.
That is if a broker gets a clear buy signal when the share on the rise and its price over a 90-day's moving average turn of oscillator curve goes upwards in the field of negative values. It is true only when the share price exceeds a 90-day moving average. The broker gets a sell signal when the turn of the oscillator goes downwards in the field of positive values, which is over zero. It is true only if the share price at this particular time is lower than a 90-day moving average of the nearest price rate.